Somalia:Clan card played in Islamist showdown

When Islamic courts union has taken the control of large swathes in southern Somalia in June 2006, I was a virulent critic of these loosely allied Islamist factions, not that I was against their intentions of pacifying the country and restoring peace and order but that they have been less qualified and ill-prepared for reigning a country like Somalia in terms of the administrative experience of their leadership, lack of hierarchical authority and ideological differences that I thought could trigger future infighting, but many Somalis have been delusional to take my concerns seriously. Union of Islamic courts embodied many factions and personalities with different ideological back grounds. when the news of the fierce fighting between militias loyal to the defunct Islamic courts union and those of Alshabab Al-muajahid in Bal’ad in middle Shabelle region, reverberated across the country, it seems that many Somalis suddenly had a strong feeling of déjà vu.

The fighting started early in the morning on Saturday in the town of Bal’ad just 30 km north of Mogadishu when militias loyal to Al-Shabab and union of Islamic courts union clashed in one of the deadliest infighting between former Islamists allies Al-shabab and UIC, at the beginning Al-shabab fighters have been dislodged from the town and it fall on the hands of UIC, but later in the day al-Shabab fighters after getting reinforcement managed to regain the control of the town, 2 people were reportedly injured and 4 others sustained injuries.

This infighting came a day after, when sheik Abdirahman Janaqow- a top leader of Islamic courts union and the secretary general of the alliance for re-liberation of Somalia Djibouti wing, accused Al-shabab of attacking and destabilizing the peaceful areas of Somalia like Ceel-Garas,Guraceel,dhuusa mareeb and beledweyn in center Somalia, he said while addressing to a congregation in a mosque near Lafaweyn Hotel in Mogadish that Al-shabab militia are attacking towns and regions with a local authority set up by the elders of these areas as they(Al-shabab militia) solely have the writ to rule. He also vehemently dismissed accusations levied on his group that they derailed the struggle to liberate the country from Ethiopian occupation and allied with what Al-Shabab call the enemy of Allah.

Janaqow alleged that Al-shabab are not interested in Ethiopian forces to quit Somalia as they claim, he said “while Ethiopians are leaving they attack their barracks to disrupt their imminent withdrawal by saying we let them quit Somalia by force, why they force them withdraw while they are leaving Somalia” .He said the presence of Ethiopian Troops inside Somalia is their raison d’etre

Janaqow also for the first time -since Al-Shabab declared their secession from the mainstream Islamic courts union when the later allied with opposition members of Somali parliament who resigned their posts and formed the alliance for re-liberation of Somalia in Asmara Eritrea-accused Al-Shabab of venality when he said they take photos of those of killed in the confrontations between Ethiopian troops and put on the websites to get funds from others whom he did not mention.

Janaqow also outlined that Al-Shabab are camouflaging under the banner of Islam by quoting verses from the Quran with out depth knowledge for ulterior agenda

Janaqow literally said “their leaders came from other regions while they escaped their respective regions and could not dare to return, they have been welcomed by the people of Mogadishu but unfortunately they kill the people with out reason”.

The spiritual leader of Al-Shabab labeled Sheikh Sharif’s Group renegades in an audio speech published on the site of Al-shabab on the World Wide Web after he said they allied with the transitional federal government and collaborated with the international community in which he accused of fueling the internecine in Somalia.

In the long term, the two main Islamist factions and their affiliates would jockey fro power after Ethiopian withdrawal if happens, both groups already started to wage a propaganda and military war against their rivals.

In these propaganda and military war, the rumps of Islamic courts union led by Sheikh Sharif will fight on these levels;

-At clan level; the top leaders of Al-shabab emanated for Somaliland, bay &Bakol region and Putland, and those who paid and still pay the highest price of the deadly confrontations between Ethiopian troops and Islamic insurgents are from Hawiye -one of the four main clans of Somalia, many quasi-liberal Hawiye leaders both in the country and in Diaspora made unsuccessful attempt to convince Hawiye members financing and giving ammunition to Al-shabab to stop their support since their innocent tribesmen are paying the price of these fighting while other regions where Al-shabab leader originate have a relative peace as long as Al-shabab are not active there. Hawiye traditional leaders like the spokesman of Hawiye traditional elders Ahmed Diriye made such allegations but the blatant allegation made by Abdurrahman Janaqow about Al-Shabab’s lack of empathy to Hawiye population in rebuffing all suggestions to stop fighting, flabbergasted many Somalis especially those of Hawiye who effusively supported Al-shabab as freedom fighters dedicated to liberate their country form Ethiopia but Janaqow resorted such well documented clan rhetoric to lure his kinsmen to support Djibouti peace process spearheaded by sheikh Sharif and stop their support to Al-shabab.

-Religion level: sheikh sharif’s group are employing a new strategy to counterattack Al-shabab which usually use Islam and religion card to win the hearts and minds of Somalis and alienate Sheiksh sharif’s group, they started to part take talks hosted by local media and deliver speeches to audience by using religious perspective to argue or challenge Al-shabab, because most Somalis understand most leaders who speak to them religious language more than they understand political language. So, they started to justify their political agenda on religious point of view, like labeling their rivals (Khawarij) or accusing Al-shabab of venality and heresy.

-The support Seikh Sharif’s group get from the international community will give them boast, many Somalis in a civil war crippled country might join them or support them since they have the support the international community and consequently could put an end the suffering of Somalis

In the side of Al-shabb they will play the cards of Security, religion and their formidable force to overpower their rivals

-Al-shabab use security card, as they usually market them selves to sustain their current record in terms of the support they get from Somali folks especially those in Mogadishu and its vicinity, they have a tested record of pacifying towns and regions under their control, Merka and Kismayo are a clear evidence for their lead in security matters when you compare with their rivals.

-Al-shabab will also beef up their propaganda war against sheikh Sharif’s group by using Islam and religion as their lethal weapon to defeat their foe.

-Al-shabab will also use their militia and formidable force in the battle field to get the upper hand as long as they maintain recruitment tactics currently used.