Succession plans after Abdullahi Yusuf’s departure

The former combative president of Somalia Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed resigned after he has been beset by international and local pressure to step down, in his resignation speech in the parliament, Abdullahi Yusuf praised him self and vehemently dismissed allegations that he was a stumbling block ahead of peace and reconciliation to prevail in Somalia. Abullahi yusuf plagued by insurgency during his term in office led by Islamists contended that he has been honestly serving for Somalia during his 4 decades in Somali political arena since his first debut 1956 as military officer of Somalia national army, but his opponents accuse him of nepotism, Disingenuousness and a traitor for foreign powers, others went far and accused him of treason. Abdullahi yusuf had the guts to leave power voluntarily regardless of pressures levied on him Behind the scene, such audacious step is odd in Somali politics where double-dealing, belligerence and lack of compromise are common.

Yusuf’s exit from office has been warmly welcomed by local populace and politicians alike but it needs all inclusive efforts to avert renewed violence and infighting between different clans and factions in Somalia. Nur Ade, the victorious prime minister of Somalia welcomed the resignation and said that it is a bold step towards democratization, also the spokesman of the Ethiopian foreign minister Wahide Belay - former allay of Abdullahi- welcomed his resignation and underlined that Ethiopian troops will withdraw from Somalia at the end of December with out giving specific date. In contrary to that Sh. Hasan Dahir Aweys a long detractor of Abdullahi yusuf underestimated the importance of his resignation, in an interview with BBC Somali section; Sh. Hassan said that Abdullahi Yusuf’s presence represented less than 5% of the debilitating predicament of Somalis by pointing a finger of suspicion to the international community and Ethiopia which are still active in Somalia.

Evolutions of the current plight

In terms of spin-off of currant political crisis in Somalia, two factions dominated the political and military scene in Somalia since the inception of the transitional federal government of Somalia. These two groups are:-

1. Transitional Federal government spearheaded by Abdullahi Yusuf that won the support of international community chiefly America as the legitimate power and spent millions of Dollar to function, the motive behind these international support was to stop the growing influence of Islamists whom it alleges have links with international terrorist groups. This government culminated in foreign support and consequently lost the backing of Somalis after its policies in restoring peace and order has been marred by corruption nepotism and friction at the political level and mass killing and targeting the densely populated areas committed by government forces and their Ethiopian backers. The transitional government lost the support of majority of Somalis after it invited the historic enemy of Somalia to enter Somali soil but maintained the international support.

2. A long range of Islamist factions once embodied under the umbrella of union of Islamic courts and latter fractured into many factions but Al-shabab with a formidable force on the ground has been the most powerful group. These Islamists took the army to fight against Ethiopian forces and really succeeded to put Ethiopian leadership in dilemma, they also inflicted human losses to Ethiopian forces, but it’s meager compared to the death toll on the other side. These Islamists did not target only Ethiopian forces but also were behind organized political assassinations and killing of individuals they said were Ethiopian collaborators. To the worst, some of these groups claimed that they have links with Al-Qadia.

In early 2008, a third group emerged in the political stage of Somalia; the members of this third group have different political ideologies but are united by the determination to change the status quo through more moderate approach. This third group comes from different political backgrounds, one is under the leadership of Somali Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein and the other is led by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed the chairman of the Alliance for re-liberation of Somalia, Djibouti wing. Nur Ade, after his nomination in November 2007 he took more reconciliatory and flexible approach after he announced that he will sit and negotiate with all factions opposing his government including Al-Shabab Islamists, Nur Ade also brokered the release of traditional elders from Hawiye clan, Ahmed Diriye and his comrades accused of inciting public uprising against the government have been released after months in Jail, his conciliatory speeches and the determination he showed for peace and reconciliation credited him local and international support that eventually triggered the demise of Abdullahi Yusuf.

Sh. Shariif and his advisers learned from their past mistakes and came to the conclusion that guns with out political strategy would not secure victory; they realized the role of the international community as a precondition on any political settlement in Somalia and the necessity of collaborations with the international and regional powers to force Ethiopia to withdraw from Somalia. To put these realities into action Sheikh Sharif distanced him self from the hardliners with the alliance leadership like sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys a designated terrorist in the American list, Sheikh Sharif took a unilateral stand and reneged his past approach to liberate the country through war.

One of the top officials in Sheikh Sharif’s camp enumerated some of diplomatic pitfalls of Islamic courts union leadership during his visit to Nairobi Kenya after the end of the first round of Djibouti peace process; he said that during peace negotiations between Union of Islamic courts and transitional federal government in Khartoum, Sudan government suggested to the delegation of UIC after the peace negotiations reached in deadlock not to withdraw completely from the peace process but accommodate marathon rounds of talks that could prolong their grip on power and hang on potential changes to regional and word policies . Unfortunately they turned down this present from a close friend by opting to put an end the peace talks and the consequence was disastrous.

Sheikh Sharif and Nur Adde jointly went on the peace process and finally agreed upon a framework or a road map that could be built on future peace talks with the support of America and western powers- the benefactors of Ethiopia and TFG- frustrated by the poor performance of the government for the past 4 years, they lastly came out triumphant at least on this moment albeit a long and daunting task is ahead.

After Yusuf’s retirement, the next step is succession plans, who will be the next president of Somalia? and how power would be shared, its speculated the names of several individuals but its too early to confirm, the successor of Abdullahi Yusuf would not only be decided by Somali parliamentarians and the equation of Nurade’s group verses Sheikh Sharif’s alliance, the voices of America and Ethiopia are also crucial. US official who requested anonymity commenting on Abdullahi yusuf’s resignation said “it’s a positive step that Yusuf has moved on,". "But now we are focused on succession plans. We'd like to see that done in 30 days.

Recommendations

To; international community

· Continue their support to the peace process and secure all necessary facilities financially and diplomatically in order Djibouti peace agreement succeed.
· Pressure Ethiopia to withdraw its troops from Somalia as agreed on Djibouti peace accord with out delay so as not to give a chance islamist like alshabab who recruit fighters on the pretext of Ethiopian presence.

To; Nur Ade and Sheikh Sharif Camps

· Nur Ade, not to be preoccupied by his win over Abdullahi Yusuf in their showdown and consult with all groups in any future government by taking into account 4.5 Formula agreed upon Kenya 2004
· Sheikh Sharif, not to alienate any Islamist group and open dialog with all islamists particularly Al-shabab to include them the peace process if Ethiopia withdraws.

To; Puntland

· Abdullahi, Yusuf their kinsman has responded positively to local and international calls to step down and give the peace a chance, he is not forced at gunpoint to resign and they should not embark on any acts that might hamper a peaceful transition of power at this critical moment.

· Not to withdraw their support from the transitional federal government and be a part and parcel of Somalia

Abdullahi Yusuf’s days are numbered, who is next?

Sheikh sharif who once widely regarded as the linchpin of the union of Islamic courts regime-an Islamic group that controlled most of southern Somalia 2006- seems to be crowned as the upcoming president of Somalia if the de facto president resigns as stipulated in the transitional federal government Charter if President Abdullahi Yusuf resigns the speaker of the parliament will assume his post temporarily and a new president should be elected with in 30 days.

Many Somali observes predict if the resignation of the aging president takes into effect the fraudulent transitional government would be at stake since the strong personality that holds together the clan affiliated members of the government departs. Abdullah yusuf, -although he was accused of human rights violations committed by his militias–, he had been the person who anchors the government to the international community chiefly America and Europe to run the daily business of the government before they shift their support to his rival, the prime minister Nur Adde. If the president resigns I envisage these impediments:-

• 
  President’s sub-clan might withdraw their support from the transitional Federal government; Somali is a clan based society where clan loyalty is paramount to every Somali politician. Abdullahi Yusuf rewarded handsomely his sub clan during his tenure, he nominated some key political and security posts to his kinsmen and his resignation might trigger his supporters to sabotage the upcoming government in a bid to revenge for their big loss -the presidency of Somalia-
• 
  The departure of Abdullahi yusuf and subsequent withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia would reignite clan warfare between Hawiye and Darod, many Hawiye hardliners irked by Abdullahi yusuf’s behaviors during his presidency might see Ethiopian withdrawal from Somalia as an encouraging step to eliminate Abdullahi Yusuf’s militia scattered in many parts of Mogadishu and its vicinity and possibly chase them to their strong-hold North Eastern regions of Somalia. This will cast doubt on the optimism shown by many local and foreign analysts that his resignation will herald a new era of peace and reconciliation in Somalia.
• 
  Islamists like Al-shabab might consider the resignation of Abdullahi Yusuf a milestone opportunity that should be seized; they will consolidate their grip on many parts of southern Somalia as a legitimate alternative to many Somalis ravaged by civil war and mayhem who desperately need peace and security. Amateurish militias of Alshabab steadfastly supported by many ordinary folks in Somalia might get an opportunity to arm them selves and seize many regions in Somalia since they pacified the town currently under their control, but their advancement will spur the decision makers in Adisabba and Washigton to replicate the post Islamic courts union era by financing and re-arming the notorious warlords that could plunge country in to a new cycle of fragmentation and bloodshed.

It is speculated that the moderate Islamist sheikh Sharif would the thriving successor of president Abdullahi Yusuf , he is currently touring in Mogadishu to win the hearts and minds of traditional elders to buy support for Djibouti peace agreement. He paradoxically learned from his past mistakes and he is mature enough politically to take into account the role of the international community as long as peace in Somalia is concerned but many observers believe that he will be bogged down inside the turbulent political arena of Somalia.

The impediments ahead of Sheikh Sharif as a vibrant and dynamic Islamist leader emanate from the nature of the faction he sits on its helm, he presides the alliance or re-liberation of Somalia established in Asmara to wage a war against Ethiopia. This alliance embodies many loosely related factions and eventually split into two factions one led by Sheikh Sharif him self and the other is led by Sh. Hassan Dahir Aweys, this two leaders had been the founding fathers of Islamic courts union that fractured into many factions where some of them allied with Al-Shabab. If sheikh Sharif is determined peace to blossom in Somalia he should first do his utmost to reunite the Islamists or at least win the support of the military leaders of the Islamists operating inside Somalia like Sh. Abdulkadir Ali Omar because their supports is necessary to stop daily attacks against Ethiopian troops as a precondition for Ethiopian withdrawal as agreed on Djibouti.

Sheikh sharif as an heir of Abdullah yusuf will only be successful; Firstly, if Ethiopians did not renege their previous promise to withdraw from Somalia. Secondly, if he gets the support of the military leaders of the insurgents operating inside Somalia Thirdly, if he renounces dogmatic and undiplomatic decisions characterized by the Islamists in Somalia and works with the regional and international community to salvage the country by sending conciliatory signs to the regional powers that under his leadership Somalia will not be a safe haven for hardliners to destabilize the neighboring countries especially Ethiopia.

In this critical moment, sheikh sharif would be naïve if he puts gaining political post on his priority, he should show courage and determination to accomplish the task he initiated because he is closely watched by many Somalis who were enthusiastic to him in his first debut, if he runs after his personal interest he will definitely lose his credibility and derail him the path he chose of being moderate and patriotic.

The forthcoming days and months will demonstrate where the political situation of Somalia will head to, but Abdullahi yusuf’s days are numbered who will be his successor?

who wins?

I was flabbergasted by the recent upheavals of Somali politics; today the rift between the fractured parts of the transitional federal government has reached its beak, the stern reactions from the president of Somali Federal Government after he unequivocally announced the removal of the Prime Minister Nur Adde from the office, heralded the beginning of a new round of political squabbling with in the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia.

Nure Ade, handpicked by his former Somali Red Crescent boss, a kin of Abdullahi yusuf, has succeeded Ali Mohamed Gedi, the former prime minister of Somalia. Since he assumed his post he has taken drastic and flexible decisions towards reconciling with the detractors of the government especially the alliance for re-liberation of Somalia, Djibouti wing but his sacking of a close strategic allay of Abdullahi yusuf, the mayor of Mogdisho Mohamed Dhere sparked the outrage of the president and subsequently triggered the resignation of two- third of government ministers.

The row between the top officials of the government has reached the doorsteps of the parliament after it took a circuitous path that started from Mogadishu through Djibouti and Kenya .The president brazenly announced today in a speech he delivered to the members of the parliament that he sacked the prime minister, he accused of the prime minister that he consecutively violated the provisions of the TNG charter and failed to run effectively the different bodies of the government since its inception in November 2007, but the supporters of the prime minister argue that such failure can not be attributed merely to the prime ministers, to get a viable and functioning government to Somalia is a collective responsibility of the members of the government, the president has his share on this failure because of his overt reluctance to take decisions that could lead to a genuine reconciliation.

1n 2006 after the removal of Islamic courts union regime, Abdullahi yusuf did not try to muster the support of the dominant clan in Mogadishu in a bid to heal the wounds of the past intrigues, he plundered after he waged suppressive actions, he paid no effort to dismiss the trepidation that most of Hawiye clan members had about his intentions to massacre them on the hands of Ethiopian forces in retaliation for what happened 1991.

The notion that many members of Hawiye clan had about Abdullahi, has been reflected by the political and military decisions of the president since he arrived in Mogadishu, he nominated all important police and military posts to members of his lineage like the commissioner of national security NS, the deputy commissioner of the police force, this unbalanced nominations spurred many Hawiye politicians to confront with Abdullahi yusuf and join the opposition to sabotage his rule.Abdullahi yusuf also accused Nure Ade of treason, but many observers ask the question who committed treason Abdullahi Yusuf or Nur Adde?, who invited the archenemy of Somalia to infiltrate the country and blatantly ordered the killing of the innocent civilians in Mogadishu and its suburbs?.

President Yusuf said that his decision to discharge the prime minister is in accordance with the constitution of the country agreed by the all political parts during the peace process held in Kenya 2002-2004, especially the provisions of the article 11(8,9,10), so let us shed light on what does article 11 and clauses 8,9,10 say;

8. The Transitional Federal Government shall ensure that the process of Federating Somalia shall take place within a period of two and a half years from the date that the commission is established.

9. In the event that the Transitional Federal Government is unable to complete the process of federalism all over Somalia within the prescribed period of two and half years, the Government shall request Parliament for a vote of confidence, failing which the Transitional Federal Parliament shall withdraw its support and a new Transitional Federal Government shall be formed in the manner set out in this charter.

10. The new Transitional Federal Government formed under Clause (8) herein shall undertake to complete the process of federalism all over Somalia within a period of one (1) year failing which the provisions of article 11(8) above shall apply.

As mentioned in article 11 and clauses 8, 9,10 if the government led by Nur Adde fails to complete the federalism with in the (1) year time frame stipulated on article 11(10) , the existence of the government will end but the question is will the government and its prime minister be discharged automatically after the end of the year or the government will ask the parliament a vote of confidence and subsequently be dissolved if it fails?. Nur Ade argues that the I year period starts from 15 January 2008 not November 2007 as the president said but if he agrees that the period of his government expires automatically either November 2008 or January 2009, it will be less complicated than if he asserts that the mandate of this government should end only if the members of the parliament vote against it.

According to the credo and canon of the president and his camp, they deem necessary to confront with any group that they see is potential threat to their interests with any price but the threat that Nuradde and his supports with in the government pose to the president seems to be more real and could put and end to the presidency of Abdullah Yusuf because of the following:-

1. Nur adde’s camp are more inclined to the peace process, they pay more effort to gather international and regional support to put the outcome of Djabouti conference in to action, and in contrast Abdullahi yusuf is not in favor of Djabuti peace process and he sees that conference is between Hawiye clan regardless of the political entity they belong, Abdulah yusuf also sees that the additional 275 member to be added to the current parliament is against 4.5 power sharing Formula agreed on Kenya peace processes 2004 because majority of additional members will come from one clan but under different political functions .

2. Abdullah sees that if Nur Adde maintains to be on the helm of the government, members of the parliament who support him could put forward a motion against the president that could put on jeopardy his presidency since he does not have the unwavering support of the Ethiopian government that he sustained for the last 4 years. So he took this decision to uproot the upcoming threat that Nure Adde and his camp pose to him.

Nur Adde undiplomatically responded to the president by saying “the president blatantly violated the provisions of the transitional federal government constitution after he dismissed me as the prime minister of Somalia, to take actions against the president’s act is on the shoulders of parliament but I insist that he can not dismiss, he is lying and the articles of the constitution he revealed are not relevant” . For this showdown, the credibility of the top officials of the government has been lost on the eyes of both Somalis and the international community but I think that the one who has the full support of Ethiopian government will win this round. It could be Abdullahi or Nur Adde

Somali media and impartiality

Spate of Journalism outlets had been spawned in Somali after the collapse of the former central government of Somalia. Radio stations, publishing houses that produce dozens of copies of Journals as well as Somali written websites had been launched to fill the vacuum left by the centralized media system that existed in Somalia during Mohamed Siyad’s tenure -albeit I could hardly juxtapose Somalia media under siyaad Bare’s era to the post civil war period because of the socio-political environment that prevailed in Somalia during these two periods.

If media under siyad Bare’s rule is characterized by centralized media remote controlled by the ministry of information to disseminate siyaad Bare’s propaganda, the post civil war media evolved from a plenty of clan affiliated A4 seized newspapers and duo of radio stations controlled by General Aidid And Ali mahdi to a variety of Fm radio stations sponsored by war lords, until the inception of what is dubbed “independent radio stations era” but partially, biasness and lack of journalism ethics prevailed, predetermined censorship was replaced by negative self censorship, I coined “negative self censorship” because predetermined censorship is when government Authorities or warlords ad or disqualify parts of the media contents regardless of its type before its published, but what is currently known to independent press became a clan dominated entities were the employees especially who hold decision making posts belong to a one clan and consequently influence the contents of the news and programmes of the media institution in favour of their clan by conducting self censorship with out direct instructions from the clan leader.

For instance; two of the major FM stations in Mogadishu might broadcast on their prime news “80 percent of Mogadishu inhabitants that we collected their opinions are against the Djibouti peace process because it will perpetuate the dreadful and vicious Ethipian occupation”, they release the voices of preselected and grudging individuals who appose the peace process. Firstly, the sample does not represent the population that is to say few individuals who reside in a particular locality in Mogadishu can not represent the whole dwellers of Mogdisho. Secondly; the motive behind this biased reporting is to sabotage the peace process in Djibouti that could end the human suffering in Mogadishu and its vicinity in the gaze of the sponsors of these radio stations.

Such unprofessional act occurs daily in the arena of the de facto Somali media but the situation went from bad to worst after the emergence of Somali published websites who carry demeaning contents that target both individuals and business institutions, these villain personalities who call them selves journalists publish false propaganda against money transfer companies to damage their good will, they publish “this company is owned by Al-Qaida linked business man or this company financed or was behind the killing of a well know local Politician” to sway the customers from the company under question and extort money form them in exchange for halting these blatant propaganda. I quoted from a whistleblower with in the coordinators of one of these websites that they extorted several hundred US dollars from one of Somali owned money transfer companies in a bid to cease the false news they write about the activates of the company. They propagate this phony news after their quest to get add contract from the company has been turned down or turn deaf eared and they resorted to this illegal way similar to the conduct of those who man the road blocks scattered many parts of Somali that generate millions of US dollar.

If your visit one of these websites you will see how unscrupulous and unsavory they are, but the affect of their nasty actions is mitigated by the knowledge and awareness that most of the visitors of these websites have about such publishers, so they read their rag tags just to have fun but regrettably they (publishers) spoil the trustworthiness of Somali media