The former combative president of Somalia Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed resigned after he has been beset by international and local pressure to step down, in his resignation speech in the parliament, Abdullahi Yusuf praised him self and vehemently dismissed allegations that he was a stumbling block ahead of peace and reconciliation to prevail in Somalia. Abullahi yusuf plagued by insurgency during his term in office led by Islamists contended that he has been honestly serving for Somalia during his 4 decades in Somali political arena since his first debut 1956 as military officer of Somalia national army, but his opponents accuse him of nepotism, Disingenuousness and a traitor for foreign powers, others went far and accused him of treason. Abdullahi yusuf had the guts to leave power voluntarily regardless of pressures levied on him Behind the scene, such audacious step is odd in Somali politics where double-dealing, belligerence and lack of compromise are common.
Yusuf’s exit from office has been warmly welcomed by local populace and politicians alike but it needs all inclusive efforts to avert renewed violence and infighting between different clans and factions in Somalia. Nur Ade, the victorious prime minister of Somalia welcomed the resignation and said that it is a bold step towards democratization, also the spokesman of the Ethiopian foreign minister Wahide Belay - former allay of Abdullahi- welcomed his resignation and underlined that Ethiopian troops will withdraw from Somalia at the end of December with out giving specific date. In contrary to that Sh. Hasan Dahir Aweys a long detractor of Abdullahi yusuf underestimated the importance of his resignation, in an interview with BBC Somali section; Sh. Hassan said that Abdullahi Yusuf’s presence represented less than 5% of the debilitating predicament of Somalis by pointing a finger of suspicion to the international community and Ethiopia which are still active in Somalia.
Evolutions of the current plight
In terms of spin-off of currant political crisis in Somalia, two factions dominated the political and military scene in Somalia since the inception of the transitional federal government of Somalia. These two groups are:-
1. Transitional Federal government spearheaded by Abdullahi Yusuf that won the support of international community chiefly America as the legitimate power and spent millions of Dollar to function, the motive behind these international support was to stop the growing influence of Islamists whom it alleges have links with international terrorist groups. This government culminated in foreign support and consequently lost the backing of Somalis after its policies in restoring peace and order has been marred by corruption nepotism and friction at the political level and mass killing and targeting the densely populated areas committed by government forces and their Ethiopian backers. The transitional government lost the support of majority of Somalis after it invited the historic enemy of Somalia to enter Somali soil but maintained the international support.
2. A long range of Islamist factions once embodied under the umbrella of union of Islamic courts and latter fractured into many factions but Al-shabab with a formidable force on the ground has been the most powerful group. These Islamists took the army to fight against Ethiopian forces and really succeeded to put Ethiopian leadership in dilemma, they also inflicted human losses to Ethiopian forces, but it’s meager compared to the death toll on the other side. These Islamists did not target only Ethiopian forces but also were behind organized political assassinations and killing of individuals they said were Ethiopian collaborators. To the worst, some of these groups claimed that they have links with Al-Qadia.
In early 2008, a third group emerged in the political stage of Somalia; the members of this third group have different political ideologies but are united by the determination to change the status quo through more moderate approach. This third group comes from different political backgrounds, one is under the leadership of Somali Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein and the other is led by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed the chairman of the Alliance for re-liberation of Somalia, Djibouti wing. Nur Ade, after his nomination in November 2007 he took more reconciliatory and flexible approach after he announced that he will sit and negotiate with all factions opposing his government including Al-Shabab Islamists, Nur Ade also brokered the release of traditional elders from Hawiye clan, Ahmed Diriye and his comrades accused of inciting public uprising against the government have been released after months in Jail, his conciliatory speeches and the determination he showed for peace and reconciliation credited him local and international support that eventually triggered the demise of Abdullahi Yusuf.
Sh. Shariif and his advisers learned from their past mistakes and came to the conclusion that guns with out political strategy would not secure victory; they realized the role of the international community as a precondition on any political settlement in Somalia and the necessity of collaborations with the international and regional powers to force Ethiopia to withdraw from Somalia. To put these realities into action Sheikh Sharif distanced him self from the hardliners with the alliance leadership like sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys a designated terrorist in the American list, Sheikh Sharif took a unilateral stand and reneged his past approach to liberate the country through war.
One of the top officials in Sheikh Sharif’s camp enumerated some of diplomatic pitfalls of Islamic courts union leadership during his visit to Nairobi Kenya after the end of the first round of Djibouti peace process; he said that during peace negotiations between Union of Islamic courts and transitional federal government in Khartoum, Sudan government suggested to the delegation of UIC after the peace negotiations reached in deadlock not to withdraw completely from the peace process but accommodate marathon rounds of talks that could prolong their grip on power and hang on potential changes to regional and word policies . Unfortunately they turned down this present from a close friend by opting to put an end the peace talks and the consequence was disastrous.
Sheikh Sharif and Nur Adde jointly went on the peace process and finally agreed upon a framework or a road map that could be built on future peace talks with the support of America and western powers- the benefactors of Ethiopia and TFG- frustrated by the poor performance of the government for the past 4 years, they lastly came out triumphant at least on this moment albeit a long and daunting task is ahead.
After Yusuf’s retirement, the next step is succession plans, who will be the next president of Somalia? and how power would be shared, its speculated the names of several individuals but its too early to confirm, the successor of Abdullahi Yusuf would not only be decided by Somali parliamentarians and the equation of Nurade’s group verses Sheikh Sharif’s alliance, the voices of America and Ethiopia are also crucial. US official who requested anonymity commenting on Abdullahi yusuf’s resignation said “it’s a positive step that Yusuf has moved on,". "But now we are focused on succession plans. We'd like to see that done in 30 days.
Recommendations
To; international community
· Continue their support to the peace process and secure all necessary facilities financially and diplomatically in order Djibouti peace agreement succeed.
· Pressure Ethiopia to withdraw its troops from Somalia as agreed on Djibouti peace accord with out delay so as not to give a chance islamist like alshabab who recruit fighters on the pretext of Ethiopian presence.
To; Nur Ade and Sheikh Sharif Camps
· Nur Ade, not to be preoccupied by his win over Abdullahi Yusuf in their showdown and consult with all groups in any future government by taking into account 4.5 Formula agreed upon Kenya 2004
· Sheikh Sharif, not to alienate any Islamist group and open dialog with all islamists particularly Al-shabab to include them the peace process if Ethiopia withdraws.
To; Puntland
· Abdullahi, Yusuf their kinsman has responded positively to local and international calls to step down and give the peace a chance, he is not forced at gunpoint to resign and they should not embark on any acts that might hamper a peaceful transition of power at this critical moment.
· Not to withdraw their support from the transitional federal government and be a part and parcel of Somalia
31/12/2008
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