Sheikh sharif who once widely regarded as the linchpin of the union of Islamic courts regime-an Islamic group that controlled most of southern Somalia 2006- seems to be crowned as the upcoming president of Somalia if the de facto president resigns as stipulated in the transitional federal government Charter if President Abdullahi Yusuf resigns the speaker of the parliament will assume his post temporarily and a new president should be elected with in 30 days.
Many Somali observes predict if the resignation of the aging president takes into effect the fraudulent transitional government would be at stake since the strong personality that holds together the clan affiliated members of the government departs. Abdullah yusuf, -although he was accused of human rights violations committed by his militias–, he had been the person who anchors the government to the international community chiefly America and Europe to run the daily business of the government before they shift their support to his rival, the prime minister Nur Adde. If the president resigns I envisage these impediments:-
President’s sub-clan might withdraw their support from the transitional Federal government; Somali is a clan based society where clan loyalty is paramount to every Somali politician. Abdullahi Yusuf rewarded handsomely his sub clan during his tenure, he nominated some key political and security posts to his kinsmen and his resignation might trigger his supporters to sabotage the upcoming government in a bid to revenge for their big loss -the presidency of Somalia-
The departure of Abdullahi yusuf and subsequent withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia would reignite clan warfare between Hawiye and Darod, many Hawiye hardliners irked by Abdullahi yusuf’s behaviors during his presidency might see Ethiopian withdrawal from Somalia as an encouraging step to eliminate Abdullahi Yusuf’s militia scattered in many parts of Mogadishu and its vicinity and possibly chase them to their strong-hold North Eastern regions of Somalia. This will cast doubt on the optimism shown by many local and foreign analysts that his resignation will herald a new era of peace and reconciliation in Somalia.
Islamists like Al-shabab might consider the resignation of Abdullahi Yusuf a milestone opportunity that should be seized; they will consolidate their grip on many parts of southern Somalia as a legitimate alternative to many Somalis ravaged by civil war and mayhem who desperately need peace and security. Amateurish militias of Alshabab steadfastly supported by many ordinary folks in Somalia might get an opportunity to arm them selves and seize many regions in Somalia since they pacified the town currently under their control, but their advancement will spur the decision makers in Adisabba and Washigton to replicate the post Islamic courts union era by financing and re-arming the notorious warlords that could plunge country in to a new cycle of fragmentation and bloodshed.
It is speculated that the moderate Islamist sheikh Sharif would the thriving successor of president Abdullahi Yusuf , he is currently touring in Mogadishu to win the hearts and minds of traditional elders to buy support for Djibouti peace agreement. He paradoxically learned from his past mistakes and he is mature enough politically to take into account the role of the international community as long as peace in Somalia is concerned but many observers believe that he will be bogged down inside the turbulent political arena of Somalia.
The impediments ahead of Sheikh Sharif as a vibrant and dynamic Islamist leader emanate from the nature of the faction he sits on its helm, he presides the alliance or re-liberation of Somalia established in Asmara to wage a war against Ethiopia. This alliance embodies many loosely related factions and eventually split into two factions one led by Sheikh Sharif him self and the other is led by Sh. Hassan Dahir Aweys, this two leaders had been the founding fathers of Islamic courts union that fractured into many factions where some of them allied with Al-Shabab. If sheikh Sharif is determined peace to blossom in Somalia he should first do his utmost to reunite the Islamists or at least win the support of the military leaders of the Islamists operating inside Somalia like Sh. Abdulkadir Ali Omar because their supports is necessary to stop daily attacks against Ethiopian troops as a precondition for Ethiopian withdrawal as agreed on Djibouti.Sheikh sharif as an heir of Abdullah yusuf will only be successful; Firstly, if Ethiopians did not renege their previous promise to withdraw from Somalia. Secondly, if he gets the support of the military leaders of the insurgents operating inside Somalia Thirdly, if he renounces dogmatic and undiplomatic decisions characterized by the Islamists in Somalia and works with the regional and international community to salvage the country by sending conciliatory signs to the regional powers that under his leadership Somalia will not be a safe haven for hardliners to destabilize the neighboring countries especially Ethiopia.
In this critical moment, sheikh sharif would be naïve if he puts gaining political post on his priority, he should show courage and determination to accomplish the task he initiated because he is closely watched by many Somalis who were enthusiastic to him in his first debut, if he runs after his personal interest he will definitely lose his credibility and derail him the path he chose of being moderate and patriotic.
The forthcoming days and months will demonstrate where the political situation of Somalia will head to, but Abdullahi yusuf’s days are numbered who will be his successor?
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