Ethiopian pull-out will not bring positive change

Somalia, already plagued by rampant insecurity, clan strife and foreign interventions is now plunging into a new era of uncertainty as Ethiopian troops pack up to leave, many observers foretell that Somalia is heading to blurry future at a time that arrays of Somali factions scramble to fill the vacuum which could result anew round of bloodshed in the country. The pessimistic reaction from Somali analysts inexorably reverberated by many Somalis is a challenge to those who believed that Ethiopian presence is the root cause of Somali problems and Somalis will live in prosperity provided Ethiopians vacate.

Colossal challenges are emerging in a country designated to “the worst of the worse” after Somalia ranked number one in foreign policy magazine’s failed states index, Somalia topped the list after scoring the worst record in; Social Indicators, Economic Indicators, Political Indicators. To ferret out the allegations made by many Somali politicians and Islamist opportunists as a rallying cry to recruit fighters or sabotage the transitional federal government, let us analyze these facts;

-Somalis are clan based societies who fight on the relatively scarce resources of their country. Lack of all inclusive government representing all Somalis to run the country through rule of law and allocate the national resources to the various regions and communities of Somalia triggered clan disputes to infiltrate in the government bodies during late 60s till early 1990s, which latter spawned secessionist factions fighting each other after the collapse of the central government 1991.

-Foreign intervention in Somalia has been correlated with factional and clan rifts where every clan or faction resorts to the neighboring countries like Ethiopia when ever it feels its clan agenda has been hamstrung by their rivals to rebalance the equation. According to the records of the past 17 year, many Somali factions or clans have been emboldened to foreign intervention when the belligerence from their fellow Somali clans or factions reached at a level that their basic human rights has been violated and could hardly manage to dislodge the marauding militias of the other faction or clan. Ethiopian backing whether direct or indirect became inevitable to their point of view as long as they are denied to live decent life in their neighborhoods, So, Ethiopian intervention is the effect of internal Somali dispute and Ethiopian presence in Somalia would not exist if there is unison between all Somalis to run their country peacefully.

-All regional and international efforts to install a viable and functioning government to Somalia has been mainly foiled by some Somali clans both in the north east and southern Somali whose members flourished during the years of anarchy, they emplaced strong clan-based financial and military capabilities through at least unethical manner. They became cordon ahead of any international and regional effort towards stabilizing Somalia, because they are preoccupied by the notion that they can survive with out government.

-Every clan or faction in Somalia spares no effort to thwart any political break through spearheaded by other rival clan or faction because of the trepidation that its victory will pave the way for forming clan dominated system that might oppress other clans or factions. What happened to Abdulqasim Salad and Abdullahi Yusuf’s presidency are clear evidence for such behavior.

I do believe that Ethiopian withdrawal will not change the critical situation positively in Somalia because there are factors that existed before the incursion of Ethiopian troops to Somalia and would influence decision made by Somalia politicians and factions after the imminent Ethiopian pull-out. These factors are;

· Few virulent and feuding Somali clans have been fighting each other in Somalia through either direct deadly confrontations or through proxy war by supporting rival clans to undermine their counterparts.

· Somalia Islamists’ threats to the neighboring countries and the world might result Ethiopians and other western powers to forge hostile policies against Somalia in a pretext to hunt down Al-Qaeda groups although American administrations’ shock and awe policy failed in Somalia.

In order the political change ushered by the resignation of Abdullah Yusuf and Ethiopian pull out- to be fruitful in Somalia, these steps should be taken into account;

- Rival Somali clans should renounce reciprocated blots and sabotages and compromise each other for the sake of peace and rule of law to blossom in Somalia as well as to put and end the odious debacle in Somalia. If such mischievous behavior does not halt and Somalis did not truly reconcile, Ethiopian pull-out would change nothing on the ground.

- Current Islamists factions should refrain from any negative acts that could fuel further fragmentations with in the Islamists in Somalia

-The time frame of the proposed independent commission of inquiry to investigate the allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity by all sides-as mentioned on the last report of international crisis group- should not be restricted to the post Islamic courts union era but should inquiry crimes committed during 18 years of Anarchy.